The causes of population ageing

onset of fertility decline move through their adult years towards old age. The result is that the proportion of children in the population falls and the proportion of older people rises. Once the fertility rate settles at a new, lower, level, the age structure of the population will shift (over about 70 years) to reach a new equilibrium with a permanently lower proportion of children and higher proportion of older people. Since fertility rates in England have been relatively low since the 1960s (though certainly not stable), the age structure will move towards its new long-run equilibrium around 2030 by which time almost one quarter of the population is expected to be aged 60 and above. The second reason for the ageing of the population is an improvement in mortality experience. Although n average fewer children are now born to each set of parents than was common in Victorian England, those who are borne are likely to live much longer. For males born in 1841 the expectation of life at birth was only 39 years, compared to 76 years today. Part of this improvement has come from the reduction in infant mortality rates (deaths of infants before their first birthday); in the 1840s a male baby which managed to survive to its first birthday could then expect to live to age 47. Some of the improvement has come at older ages; a male born in 1841 who managed to survive until age 60 could expect, on average, a further 13 years of life, whereas a male born in 1931 who has survived to age 60 can expect another 19 years of life. The major change, however, has come from the reduced mortality rates between the first and sixtieth birthdays. This means that, although the size of The causes of population ageing